Study estimates Americans traded billions on Polymarket&#39;s banned offshore platform

Pham pushes CFTC to modernize Rule 40.11 as watchdog criticizes agency's industry tilt

CFTC moves to allow sports betting, bar war wagers on prediction platforms

Polymarket sponsors Liga MX in US with Genius Sports data

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Kalshi co-founder Luana Lopes Lara becomes world's youngest female self-made billionaire

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Top Stories

CFTC approves first U.S. bitcoin perpetual futures for Kalshi and Coinbase

Robinhood already drives the majority of Kalshi's volume and launched competing perpetual futures within days of Kalshi's bitcoin debut. Kalshi must capture retail flow during its rapid altcoin expansion or watch U.S. leveraged crypto trading consolidate with its largest broker-turned-rival.

CFTC proposes ban on prediction market wagers on ouster of U.S. enemies

Kalshi and Polymarket must now purge or restructure any market with latent war or assassination exposure before the 90-day vetting framework takes effect. A finalized rule would force immediate delistings and expose platforms to enforcement if they miss implicit conflict references.

Sportradar signs multi-year data deal to power Kalshi sports event contracts

Kalshi's access to verified league data from Sportradar strengthens its regulatory credibility. If institutional desks demand official data for pricing, competitors without comparable feeds will struggle to match ticket size.

Kalshi to require employer disclosure on select trades amid insider-trading crackdown

Kalshi's employment-verification system must now intercept informed traders before they profit. Any gap leaves the CFTC-regulated exchange exposed as a co-defendant when DOJ and CFTC file parallel insider-trading actions.

Tech

Polymarket teases Combo, a parlay-style feature for combining prediction markets

Polymarket's parlay format explicitly targets casual sportsbook users who already understand combined wagers, a demographic Kalshi and ForecastEx have chased with sports-event contracts but without native parlay mechanics. Any traction here could pull retail flow away from sportsbook-style platforms before they can replicate the feature.

Kalshi perps hit $1 billion volume in first week as Robinhood rivalry intensifies

Robinhood already drives the majority of Kalshi's volume and is routing event contracts to its own Rothera exchange. Kalshi must defend its brokered retail flow during this altcoin expansion or watch U.S. leveraged crypto trading migrate elsewhere.

CFTC sues Rhode Island to block state gambling enforcement against prediction markets

Kalshi and Polymarket now face criminal exposure in Rhode Island unless the federal injunction succeeds, forcing them to maintain parallel geofencing and legal defense strategies across Minnesota's felony statute challenge and at least three other active state proceedings. If the CFTC loses on preemption here, state attorneys general gain a roadmap to replicate Rhode Island's gambling-law enforcement nationwide.

FanDuel Predicts adds Crypto.com's OG as second exchange partner

FanDuel Predicts now sources contracts from a crypto-native exchange with a fresh mobile app instead of relying solely on CME Group. Any volume that shifts to OG's iOS-first stack tests whether traditional futures venues or crypto-native platforms prove stickier for sportsbook-originated retail flow.

Robinhood routes World Cup contracts to Rothera while keeping some markets on Kalshi

Rothera's capture of World Cup liquidity directly threatens Kalshi's trading volume at the precise moment Robinhood's event-contract business is scaling fastest. Any sustained migration will force Kalshi to rebuild its retail flow pipeline outside Robinhood just as sports event contracts face mounting tribal and regulatory challenges.

Kalshi partners with Argentina Football Association for World Cup 2026 data and marketing campaign

The AFA deal gives Kalshi verified official data for Argentina matches, a direct counter to ADI Predictstreet's Chainlink oracle stack and Sportradar-fed competitors. If institutional desks and retail platforms now demand league-certified feeds as a baseline, Kalshi's Genius Sports pipeline becomes a prerequisite rather than an edge.

ProphetX applauds CFTC's proposed prediction market rulemaking

ProphetX's endorsement gives the sports-native segment a public voice in the comment period for the first time. If the final rule preserves sports event contracts, ProphetX can leverage its single-vertical focus against broader platforms that must also defend political and economic markets.

CFTC proposes sweeping prediction market rules for sports and terrorism contracts

Kalshi and Polymarket must now map every existing and planned market against two simultaneous rulemakings. Final rules that narrow permissible sports or political contracts would force both platforms to delist products and restructure compliance workflows before enforcement begins.

Kalshi to require employment data for trading in high-risk markets

Kalshi must now prove its employment-verification and risk-scoring systems can intercept informed traders before they profit. Any surveillance gap leaves the CFTC-regulated exchange exposed as a co-defendant when DOJ and CFTC file parallel insider-trading actions. For other CFTC-registered platforms, Kalshi's rollout sets the operational benchmark for customer due diligence on event contracts.

Opinion

Kalshi and Polymarket liquidity 'too thin' for institutional use, Risk.net reports

DRW, Wintermute and IMC just committed dedicated market-making desks to Kalshi and Polymarket precisely to solve this liquidity gap. Their success or failure in narrowing bid-ask spreads and absorbing block-size orders will determine whether institutional capital treats prediction markets as a genuine asset class or remains on the sidelines.

Kalshi adds risk scores, employment checks and whistleblower tools after first surveillance audit

Robinhood shares climb 7% on Rothera event contract routing and World Cup launch

Rothera's capture of Robinhood's World Cup flow directly threatens Kalshi's retail trading volume, which Robinhood already drives the majority of. Kalshi must now rebuild its standalone pipeline outside Robinhood just as DRW, Wintermute and IMC bring institutional liquidity to Kalshi and Polymarket.

FIFA partner ADI Predictstreet launches in US with Fanatics and Chainlink deals

ADI Predictstreet's Fanatics distribution and Chainlink oracle stack give it immediate state-level reach and technical credibility, forcing Kalshi to defend retail flow against yet another World Cup entrant while Polymarket and Robinhood already split the market three ways.

Kalshi to roll out employer-disclosure rules after blocking 100 potential insider trades

Elwood platform adds Kalshi connectivity for institutional event-contract trading

Elwood's integration gives Kalshi a direct pipeline to institutional order flow outside Robinhood's retail channel. Any competing CFTC-regulated venue without similar prime-broker-style connectivity will struggle to capture hedge fund and asset manager volume.

DraftKings files six CFTC event contracts for DKeX prediction market exchange

The $3.1 billion annualized run rate from DraftKings Predictions gives the company scale data to pitch institutional market makers on DKeX before the NFL season. Any CFTC delay on its self-certified contracts would leave that liquidity sitting on the retail side while Kalshi and Robinhood lock in institutional flow.

CFTC proposes rule to restrict war and conflict event contracts

Kalshi and other CFTC-registered platforms must now screen markets for latent war or assassination exposure even when contracts lack explicit conflict references. Any listing that crosses the proposed line risks enforcement action once the rule is finalized.

Kalshi and Polymarket World Cup volume tops $2B as Spain leads odds

The $2 billion figure arrives as Robinhood routes some World Cup flow to Rothera, splitting Kalshi's once-captive retail pipeline. Sustained fragmentation would force both Kalshi and Polymarket to compete harder for institutional market-maker support to defend execution quality.

Robinhood routes some World Cup contracts to Rothera while keeping Kalshi

La Liga's Osasuna reportedly hedged relegation risk with €1.2M Kalshi bet

Kalshi's emergence as a hedging venue for professional sports clubs gives it a new counterparty type just as Robinhood begins routing World Cup contracts to rival Rothera. If institutional flow from leagues or team owners becomes repeat business, Kalshi can offset retail churn; if the coverage gap explodes into an integrity scandal, the platform faces CFTC scrutiny under the agency's newly proposed contract rules.

Robinhood brings Rothera event contracts in-house with $2 million debut weekend

Rothera's capture of Robinhood flow directly threatens Kalshi's retail volume, which Robinhood already drives the majority of. Kalshi must now rebuild its standalone pipeline outside Robinhood just as DRW, Wintermute and IMC bring institutional liquidity to Kalshi and Polymarket.

Trump administration proposes new prediction market regulations

Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket now face parallel fights on two fronts: defending against state bans like Minnesota's felony statute while shaping this federal rulemaking. If the final rule preempts state authority, it neutralizes the 'backdoor sportsbook' attack; if it defers to states, the patchwork deepens.

Polymarket international volume falls for second straight month as US platform grows

Polymarket's shrinking international volume against Kalshi's record streak weakens its pitch to DRW, Wintermute and IMC that it can match the regulated venue's retail flow depth. Any sustained gap risks redirecting institutional market-making talent toward Kalshi's growing liquidity pool. The ninth straight monthly volume record at $17.91B gives Kalshi hard evidence for its funding narrative that regulated markets drain offshore liquidity.

Polymarket user bets $9.5M on DR Congo World Cup at 0.1% odds

The $9.5 million position tests whether Polymarket's infrastructure can handle block-size sports bets without the institutional market-maker backing that DRW, Wintermute and IMC provide Kalshi. If execution breaks or payout terms shift, sophisticated traders will demand comparable market-maker relationships before committing similar size.

Kalshi CEO touts perpetual futures demand as SOL perps go live

Kalshi must prove its standalone derivatives product can retain retail flow that Robinhood might otherwise route to its own competing perpetual futures or to its new Rothera exchange. The SOL launch tests whether Kalshi can build crypto perpetuals into a durable venue driver independent of its largest broker.

Stocks

DraftKings Predictions volume reaches $3.1B annualized run rate in May

The $3.1 billion run rate gives DraftKings the scale data to pitch institutional market makers on DKeX before the NFL season opens. Any CFTC delay on its self-certified contracts would leave that liquidity sitting on the retail side while Kalshi and Robinhood lock in institutional flow.

Tech

Polymarket paper-trading simulator and bot docs hit Claude Code Skills

Every new Claude Code skill published lowers the barrier for automated strategies to enter Polymarket's live markets. Competing platforms without MCP-standard AI tooling risk losing quant developers entirely to Polymarket's embedded execution stack.

BBB ad watchdog refers Kalshi to FTC after influencer inquiry no-show

The NAD referral arms the FTC with a concrete advertising-compliance complaint alongside the separate congressional request for a broader prediction-market probe. Kalshi now faces potential FTC consent decrees and civil penalties on two tracks, adding advertising enforcement to its existing regulatory load of CFTC oversight and multiple state-court actions.

Pred opens public FIFA World Cup markets after 86% retention private beta

Pred enters World Cup liquidity at the precise moment Kalshi and Polymarket have already cleared $2 billion in combined volume and Robinhood is actively splitting flow to Rothera. Without institutional market-maker relationships comparable to DRW, Wintermute and IMC's desks for Kalshi and Polymarket, Pred's in-play niche may remain thin for large traders.

Polymarket odds for Knicks to win 2026 NBA title jump to 81.9%

An 81.9% price level with measurable hourly velocity gives DRW, Wintermute and IMC their first live benchmark for how well their new market-making infrastructure absorbs concentrated one-sided flow. Any slippage against Kalshi's quoted Finals markets will show whether the post-QCEX desk buildout has actually closed the execution gap.

Crypto.com launches OG prediction market app on Apple App Store

FanDuel Predicts now routes through OG Prediction Markets just six days after the app's launch, giving the sportsbook immediate access to mobile-native distribution that Kalshi and ForecastEx still lack. Any volume that migrates to OG's iOS-first stack weakens the case that dedicated prediction-market operators need separate sportsbook partnerships to reach retail users.

Tech

Octagon AI launches Kalshi prediction baskets targeting rate-cut mispricing

Kalshi's institutional push now includes a third-party product layer built expressly for macro hedge funds. Any volume Octagon AI drives through its rate-cut basket directly deepens the liquidity that Kalshi's Bloomberg-style terminal and Galaxy's OTC desk are competing to capture.

WagerWire approved as Gibraltar's second prediction markets licensee

WagerWire must now prove the Gibraltar license can actually unlock US market access or it will remain a marginal offshore player while Kalshi, Polymarket, and DraftKings consolidate the larger CFTC-regulated market.

Robinhood lists sub-hourly crypto price prediction contracts via Kalshi, ForecastEx partners

Robinhood's sub-hourly crypto contracts give Kalshi a second derivatives vertical alongside its newly approved perpetual futures, diversifying the platform's revenue just as Rothera begins siphoning sports-event flow. Any sustained volume here offsets Kalshi's exposure to a Robinhood routing shift on World Cup and sports contracts.

Smart-money wallet bets $820,000 on Knicks Game 3, then $220,000 on Spurs Game 4

Block-size flow from the same smart-money wallet on both sides of the series gives Polymarket a live stress test of its post-QCEX market depth against Kalshi's institutional desk backing. Any pricing slippage on these prints versus Kalshi's quoted markets will show whether DRW, Wintermute and IMC have closed the execution-quality gap.

Polymarket closes first institutional GPU block trade in six-figure Nvidia compute hedge

Any fund already clearing through FalconX can now add GPU compute exposure to its Polymarket block-trade workflow without new counterparty agreements. That removes a key onboarding barrier that has kept institutional capital out of on-chain event contracts.

Global

Spain blocks Polymarket and Kalshi for unlicensed gambling operations

Polymarket must now defend against active government blocking in five major markets — adding Spain to Indonesia, India, Brazil, and South Korea — while any consistent foreign enforcement template treating its CFTC-regulated contracts as gambling directly undermines its argument that U.S. federal oversight insulates it from overseas shutdowns.

Kalshi refers George Santos to DOJ and CFTC over State of the Union bets

Every CFTC-registered exchange must now demonstrate surveillance capable of catching insiders who trade on their own non-public schedules. Any platform that fails to self-report such abuse risks co-defendant exposure when DOJ and CFTC file parallel actions.

Indonesia blocks Polymarket after presidential early-exit markets trigger gambling ban

Polymarket must now defend against active government blocking in four major markets — Indonesia, India, Spain, and Brazil — while any consistent foreign enforcement template treating its CFTC-regulated contracts as gambling weakens its core argument that U.S. federal oversight insulates it from overseas shutdowns.

Global

Polymarket hires Jupiter exec, targets Japan approval by 2030

Polymarket must now manage simultaneous regulatory defense in South Korea and India while pursuing Japan's slow FSA timeline. Any adverse ruling in Seoul or Delhi would arm Japanese regulators with a ready enforcement template, collapsing the 2030 target before lobbying begins in earnest.

Indonesia blocks Polymarket as South Korea probes and Spain bans platform

Polymarket must now defend against simultaneous blocking in Indonesia, Spain, and prospective India action while a House Oversight probe demands surveillance records by June 5. Any consistent foreign enforcement template treating CFTC-regulated contracts as gambling weakens the platform's argument that U.S. federal oversight insulates it from overseas shutdowns.

Polymarket partners with Nasdaq Private Market for pre-IPO prediction contracts

Kalshi must now match Polymarket's Nasdaq-backed data partnership or concede trader liquidity on AI-listing odds. The rival platforms are already running divergent OpenAI and Anthropic valuation markets.

CFTC approves first bitcoin perpetual futures contract for Kalshi

Robinhood accounts for the majority of Kalshi's volume. Any shift to leveraged perpetual futures will require fresh clearing agreements or risk fracturing the single-broker flow that already drove a 49.5% volume plunge when sports calendars went light.